New Poll on Key Senate Race in Texas

A Marist poll released Tuesday found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race. Among registered voters, Talarico had 50 percent and Paxton 44 percent.

Two percent backed someone else. Four percent said they did not know or refused. Independents broke for Talarico 55 percent to 35 percent, a 20-point gap.

The survey was taken September 17-20 among 1,139 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent. RealClearPolitics later put Talarico’s average lead at 2.8 points.

Age splits the race. Gen Z backed Talarico 74 percent to 18 percent. Millennials favored him 52 percent to 36 percent. Gen X was nearly even, 49 percent to 48 percent. Combined older groups — Baby Boomers, the Silent Generation, and the Greatest Generation — preferred Paxton by 23 points.

White evangelical Christians did not follow Talarico’s claim to a Christian identity. Seventy-five percent backed Paxton. Twenty-two percent backed Talarico.

Breitbart highlighted Talarico’s views on sex and medicine, writing that he “believes there are six biological sexes” and “openly supports the genital mutilation of confused children.” Those characterizations sit at the center of the outlet’s coverage of his campaign.

The same report returned to Talarico’s pastor and mentor, Rev. Jim Rigby of St. Andrews Presbyterian Church in Austin. In an Easter sermon, Rigby treated the resurrection as an open question.

“Maybe Jesus rose from the dead, but maybe not,” Rigby said. He also asked whether people wanted to “just bet your entire life on what somebody a long time ago told you.”

Talarico has also argued that the New Testament supports a government health program in the mold of Obamacare. Republican officials have answered that “ruby red Texas” will reject him once the party unites behind Paxton.

The Marist numbers are a snapshot, not a forecast. They show a Democrat with a youth and independent advantage in a state that has long favored Republicans in statewide races.