GOP Wins Crucial Swing District

Former Maine Governor Paul LePage, a Republican, won the open seat in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, defeating Democrat Matt Dunlap. The victory is the only flip of a Democratic-held House seat by a Republican in the 2026 cycle that did not stem from redistricting.

The seat opened after four-term Democratic incumbent Jared Golden chose not to run again. Golden had built a record as one of the more moderate House Democrats and occasionally voted with Republicans. Maine’s Secretary of State reported 341,248 ballots cast in the contest.

LePage received 170,263 first-choice votes, or 49.894 percent, under the state’s ranked-choice system. Dunlap received 164,845 votes, or 48.307 percent. Write-in candidates accounted for 123 votes, and 6,017 ballots were left blank, producing a first-choice lead of 5,418 votes for LePage.

Because no candidate reached a majority of total ballots, Maine law requires a ranked-choice tabulation. That process is set to begin Monday in Augusta once municipal totals are verified. Officials and both campaigns have said the tabulation is unlikely to change the result, given the size of LePage’s margin relative to the remaining blank and write-in ballots.

In previous ranked-choice runoffs in the district, most blank ballots were exhausted without transferring. LePage declared victory on Wednesday after roughly a day of counting. Dunlap conceded the following day.

The 2nd District covers much of rural and northern Maine and is the largest congressional district by area east of the Mississippi River. Donald Trump carried it in three consecutive presidential elections. At 78, LePage will enter Congress as one of the oldest freshman members.

He previously served as mayor of Waterville from 2004 to 2011 and as Maine’s governor from 2011 to 2019. After term limits ended his governorship, he moved to Florida and later ran unsuccessfully for a third term against Democratic Governor Janet Mills in 2022, though he still carried the 2nd District in that race.

Nationally, the Maine result stands apart from broader Democratic gains. Democrats secured control of the House with a substantial majority, with projections placing the party in the range of 250 to 260 seats once remaining races are resolved. That represents a net gain on the order of 40 seats and one of the larger Democratic House majorities in recent decades.

The ranked-choice process remains a formality in the view of those involved. LePage’s first-choice total already exceeds Dunlap’s by more than the combined blank and write-in ballots. Historical patterns in the district support the expectation that few of those ballots will transfer.

Golden’s decision not to seek reelection removed a known moderate from the ballot. Dunlap, the state auditor, entered the race as the Democratic nominee in an open-seat contest. The first-choice results showed a closely divided electorate even before any ranked-choice adjustments.

LePage’s prior statewide campaigns gave him name recognition across the district. His 2022 gubernatorial loss statewide did not prevent him from performing well in the northern and rural areas that make up the 2nd District. That regional strength carried into the 2026 House race.

The district’s size and rural character have long shaped its politics. It stretches across a wide geographic area and has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in recent cycles even while the state as a whole has leaned Democratic. LePage’s win continues that pattern at the congressional level.

Certification will follow the ranked-choice tabulation. Until that process is complete, the outcome rests on the first-choice totals and the expectation that exhausted ballots will not reverse the lead. Both campaigns have treated the result as settled.

The House majority math remains heavily Democratic regardless of this single seat. One Republican pickup in Maine does not alter the overall balance of power projected for the next Congress. It does, however, return the 2nd District to Republican representation after Golden’s tenure.

LePage will join the House as a former governor with executive experience. His age and prior service distinguish him from many incoming freshmen. How he approaches the role of a minority-party member in a Democratic House will become clearer after he is sworn in.

The ranked-choice system used in Maine can produce different outcomes than plurality voting in close races. In this instance, the first-choice margin was large enough that the additional step is not expected to matter. The official tabulation will still be conducted as required by state law.

Dunlap’s concession ended the immediate contest. The final certified numbers will be released after the ranked-choice process concludes. For practical purposes, the district has flipped.