New Poll Stuns Democrats: Paxton Holds Narrow Edge Over Talarico

A newly released poll in Texas has revealed an extremely close contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with Paxton maintaining a narrow advantage just hours before voters head to the polls for the 2026 midterm elections. The survey, conducted by the Trafalgar Group, suggests that one of the country’s closely watched Senate races could be decided by a remarkably small margin, potentially affecting which party controls the U.S. Senate.

According to the survey, Paxton receives 48.1% support among likely voters, compared with 47.5% for Talarico. The Republican’s advantage stands at just 0.6 percentage points, leaving the candidates effectively tied heading into Election Day. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown attracts 2.4% support, while another 2% of respondents remain undecided, creating uncertainty about the final outcome.

POLL: Who Would You Vote For?

Paxton Talarico

The poll surveyed 1,089 likely general election voters between October 31 and November 1. Trafalgar reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, meaning Paxton’s narrow lead falls comfortably within the survey’s statistical uncertainty. Consequently, the results do not establish either candidate as a clear favorite, although they provide a snapshot of voter preferences during the campaign’s final days.

The findings come as Republicans seek to maintain their Senate majority while Democrats attempt to capture competitive seats across the country. Texas has become an important battleground, with both parties closely monitoring voter turnout, demographic trends and the potential influence of undecided voters.

One of the survey’s most significant findings involves older Texans, who overwhelmingly favor Paxton. Among respondents between 50 and 64 years old, the Republican leads by more than 16 percentage points, receiving 56.2% support compared with Talarico’s 39.6%.

Paxton performs even better among voters 65 and older, securing 57.7% support against Talarico’s 37.6%. That represents a substantial 20.1-point advantage among senior voters, a demographic that could play an important role in determining the election’s outcome.

Together, voters aged 50 and older represent 63.1% of Trafalgar’s sample. Their substantial presence helps explain how Paxton maintains a statewide advantage despite trailing his Democratic opponent among younger respondents.

Talarico, meanwhile, demonstrates particularly strong support among Texans under 50. Among voters ages 18 to 29, the Democrat leads with 53.8%, compared with Paxton’s 37.8%.

The Democrat’s strongest performance occurs among voters ages 30 to 39, where he receives 71.5% support against Paxton’s 23%. This represents a striking 48.5-point advantage within that demographic.

Talarico also leads among respondents between 40 and 49 years old, receiving 58.4% support compared with 39.8% for Paxton. Those findings suggest that younger and middle-aged voters could provide a significant source of Democratic support.

The survey also identifies a notable gender divide. Paxton leads among male voters by 11 percentage points, attracting 53.1% support compared with Talarico’s 42.1%.

Among women, however, Talarico holds an 8.8-point advantage, receiving 52.4% support against Paxton’s 43.6%. Women account for 52.6% of respondents, while men represent the remaining 47.4%.

Race and ethnicity represent another important dividing line. Paxton maintains a substantial lead among white voters, receiving 57.2% support compared with Talarico’s 38.7%, an advantage of 18.5 percentage points.

Talarico performs considerably better among Hispanic voters, leading 54.9% to 40.1%. His advantage among Black respondents is even larger, with 77.6% supporting the Democrat compared with 16.1% backing Paxton.

However, the demographic findings should be interpreted cautiously. Individual age, gender and racial categories contain fewer respondents than the statewide sample, making their results subject to greater statistical uncertainty.

Trafalgar also disclosed the political affiliation of respondents. Republicans account for 45.7% of the sample, Democrats represent 33.6%, and voters identifying with another party or no party constitute 20.7%. The published findings do not specify how each partisan group divided its support between the candidates.

The polling organization reported a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 4.5%. Neither major candidate has reached 50% support, and the percentage of undecided voters remains larger than the difference separating Paxton and Talarico.

With Election Day approaching, the Texas Senate contest remains highly competitive. Paxton’s strength among older voters and men is counterbalanced by Talarico’s advantages among younger voters, women and several minority demographic groups. Ultimately, the final result will depend on which supporters turn out and whether late-deciding voters break decisively toward either candidate.