Mexico CAVES to Trump Over Migrant Caravan

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday that no migrant caravan has reached the U.S. border since President Trump returned to office in January 2025. Speaking at her daily news briefing, she responded to Trump’s threat to double tariffs on Mexican goods unless Mexico halted groups moving north. “Not a single migrant caravan has reached the north” since that date, she stated.

Sheinbaum said a caravan of roughly 600 people traveling through Chiapas had largely dispersed after members were informed that entry into the United States would be “very difficult.” Mexican authorities are also in discussions with a separate group of several hundred Honduran migrants and are encouraging them to return home. She ruled out the use of force, citing the government’s “extensive experience” in accompanying migrants and explaining the low odds of successful crossing.

Trump had posted on Truth Social that “huge CARAVANS are forming” and that tariffs would be “IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED” if Mexico did not stop them. He addressed the message to Mexican authorities, the new Democratic governor of Texas, Border Patrol, and ICE. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin echoed that the groups would not be permitted to enter.

The tariff threat arrives while the two countries continue negotiations over duties imposed last year and while a review of the USMCA trade agreement is underway. Sheinbaum’s comments emphasize that existing Mexican policies have already prevented caravans from reaching the northern border. She has previously noted substantial reductions in encounters during the prior U.S. administration as well.

Two groups are currently moving through southern Mexico, according to the president. One has shrunk significantly; the other consists mainly of Hondurans. Mexican officials continue to inform participants that U.S. entry under present rules is effectively closed.

Trump linked the formation of the groups to the recent U.S. midterm results, in which Democrats gained congressional majorities. Some migrants have cited those results as a reason for renewed hope. Sheinbaum’s briefing sought to separate the facts on the ground from that perception.

Mexico has dispersed or redirected similar caravans in the past without large-scale confrontations. Sheinbaum reiterated that approach. She has not indicated any change in policy in response to the latest tariff warning.

Trade talks remain active. Any decision to raise tariffs further would occur against the backdrop of ongoing USMCA discussions and prior court rulings that constrained certain presidential tariff authorities. No new duties have been implemented.

The caravan that left Tapachula earlier in the week has not advanced far. Mexican migration authorities are monitoring its remnants and the second group. Sheinbaum’s public statement supplies the official Mexican position.

U.S. officials have maintained that existing enforcement measures will be applied at the border. The combination of Mexican interdiction and U.S. policy has kept large-scale arrivals low since early 2025. Sheinbaum presented that record as evidence that the current threat is overstated.

No force has been used against the present groups. Officials rely on information campaigns and offers of return assistance. That method has been consistent across recent caravans.

The president’s remarks were delivered in the context of her regular morning press conference. They directly addressed the Truth Social post issued hours earlier. The exchange places the tariff threat and the Mexican response on the public record the same day.

Further movement by the remaining migrants will determine whether additional Mexican action is required. For now, Sheinbaum has characterized the situation as manageable under existing practices. Trump has not issued a follow-up statement.

The USMCA review and the separate tariff negotiations continue in parallel. Migration enforcement remains one variable in that larger economic relationship. Sheinbaum’s comments seek to remove the immediate caravan issue from the list of active disputes.

Border metrics since January 2025 support the claim that no organized caravan has completed the journey to the U.S. line. Individual crossings and smaller groups persist at much lower volumes. The distinction between caravans and other flows is central to the Mexican statement.