This New Poll Just Flipped the Texas Senate Race — and One Group of Voters Is Driving It

A fresh survey of likely Texas voters has put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by five percentage points in the U.S. Senate race.

Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico leading 45 percent to 40 percent in polling conducted July 15 through July 17 among 1,048 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The Texas Tribune noted it as Talarico’s largest lead in any public poll during the general election period.

Talarico held a commanding edge among independents, with fewer than one-quarter backing Paxton. He also led among voters without college degrees — a demographic that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and nationally in recent cycles.

Paxton’s support among Republican voters appeared softer than in earlier surveys. Nearly one in five GOP respondents said they were undecided or planned to support Talarico.

The results mark a shift from June polling. A YouGov survey of registered voters on June 12 had shown Paxton leading 49 percent to 47 percent. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll placed Paxton narrowly ahead 43 percent to 42 percent.

Earlier in the year, the same University of Texas pollster had shown Talarico leading then-Sen. John Cornyn by eight points. CNN’s Aaron Blake highlighted Paxton’s subsequent consolidation of Republican voters, with his GOP support rising from 63 percent in April to 84 percent in June.

A New York Times/Siena poll had the candidates tied at 47 percent, while the RealClearPolitics average as of June 30 showed Paxton edging Talarico 45.2 percent to 44.6 percent. The newest numbers inject fresh uncertainty into one of the cycle’s most closely watched contests.