According to a report from the Power Line Blog, a reader with a PhD in engineering and worked 35 years in advanced data analysis wrote about Sweden’s experience with the coronavirus.
He said, “I did a quick look at the data coming out of Sweden with the data obtained from Worldometer, and have plotted the data on a per capita basis (positive cases vs 1M population) for Sweden and the US as well as an exponential fit to the data. The exponential fit was obtained by using β-µ=0.3 for both countries, where β and μ are the rates of infections and removals in the population, respectively. The quotient of β/μ is the contagion rate or R0 (R-naught) and the WHO is estimating R0 to be between 2.0 and 2.5 for this virus.”
He then points our that Sweden originally had a higher case count on March 4 than the United States, “their positive cases are approximately 670 per 1M population on April 5th and now below the US per capita rate of 1020 per 1M population.”
The writer also noted that the infection rate between the U.S. and Sweden was almost identical.
More from Powerline:
Something very interesting is going on with this virus. I’m sure some of the differences between Sweden and the US can be explained by overall population density, the number of large cities, number of people per household, etc. but the fact that Sweden has broken the curve without draconian measures should force a reexamination of our current models and lockdown strategy. Further, it is likely that Sweden will not experience a second wave of the virus since it appears that they can continue their current lifestyle without serious economic implications until a cure of vaccine is found, which is exactly what we need in the US.