According to a report from the Daily Wire, a model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released an updated estimate of the death toll from the coronavirus pandemic.

The estimated death projection for the first wave of the pandemic is 81,766 deaths, down from 93,531.

“The 11,765 fewer deaths would mark a 14% decrease for the model’s target projection, and a 30% decrease for the worst-case scenario,” The Daily Caller noted Monday.

The estimates are based on the implementation of “full social distancing through May 2020″.

During a press briefing on Sunday, President Trump said that there are less beds being used than originally projected, noting New York as an example.

“It’s turning out that we need less hospital beds,” President Trump explained.

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“We may have models, but we’ve been sort of saying that. In New York, we were saying we think you’re gonna need less.”

“Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June,” the government website for the model explains. “The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population.”



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By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary,” the site explained further. “Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.”

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Based on the IHME model, Drs. Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci, leaders in the White House coronavirus response task force, earlier this month estimated between 100,000-240,000 deaths related to COVID-19, The Washington Post reported. (Revisions to the model made on Wednesday dropped the best-estimate to 93,531, and now 81,766.)

Aside from the IHME model, Dr. Birx has specifically highlighted a model from Imperial College London as a guide for nationwide policy on fighting the novel coronavirus. The model initially estimated up to a stunning 2.2 million COVID-19 associated deaths in the United States with no mitigation. Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist behind the Imperial model, predicted a whopping 500,000 COVID-19 associated fatalities in the U.K. without mitigation, but now estimates far fewer than 20,000 deaths, citing the nation’s lockdowns.