An upcoming three-way general election competition involving Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., President Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump appears increasingly inevitable based on recent polling averages.
RealClearPolling data shows that the former president and leading Republican candidate holds a significant lead over his two competitors in national polls, with an average 5.3% advantage across 21 surveys conducted since October of the previous year.
These figures place President Trump at an average support level of 41% among voters, while President Biden garners 35.7% and RFK, a former Democrat now running as an independent, secures 11.7% of respondents. President Biden has not led in any national poll this year.
These results underscore the challenge ahead, indicating that despite the mainstream media’s emphasis on the 200 days remaining until Election Day and the notion that President Biden has time to catch up, Trump’s enduring popularity suggests that defeating him will be a monumental task.
CNN and the New York Times covered a NYT/Emerson College survey indicating that Trump holds a mere one percent lead over Biden, with a 46-45% margin, prompting writers to characterize the race as “tightly contested.”
However, a broader analysis of recent findings reveals the significant decline Biden has experienced. The Democratic president is facing strong criticism from respondents regarding the economy and the country’s direction. A majority of those surveyed rated the economy as fair or poor, while 59% expressed disapproval of the president’s performance.
This latest poll emerges as President Biden gears up for a series of campaign appearances in swing states where he is notably vulnerable.
Recently, he sent Vice President Kamala Harris to Arizona following a state supreme court decision that effectively restricts abortions based on an outdated 1864 law. During her visit, Harris criticized President Trump for taking credit for the reversal of Roe v. Wade.
“Here in Arizona they have turned back the clock to the 1800s to take away a woman’s most fundamental right – the right to make decisions about her own body,” the vice president said, adding that women in the state now “live under one of the most extreme abortion bans in our nation”.
“The overturning of Roe was, without any question, a seismic event and this ban here in Arizona is one of the biggest aftershocks yet,” she said, according to the Guardian.
However, the Biden campaign’s emphasis on abortion may not be striking a chord with voters. According to Politico’s Playbook, an internal poll conducted by the Trump campaign surveyed 400 voters, revealing that only 16% of likely November voters identified “Abortion/women’s rights” or “Arizona abortion ruling/abortion ban” as their primary concerns.
Interestingly, the conflict in Gaza was tied with abortion as the most significant issue. When asked about the factors that would influence their presidential vote, respondents did not rank abortion among the top five issues. Inflation (22%) emerged as the leading concern, followed by taxes, government spending, and debt (14%), safeguarding democracy (13%), government transparency (13%), and immigration and border security (12%). Only 3% of respondents mentioned abortion as a decisive factor.
